The National Bank of Ukraine is facing a number of challenges while managing the exchange rate. The regulator may have to balance between the devaluation of the hryvnia and measures to control inflation. This was stated in an exclusive interview with UNN by the co-founder of the first fintech ecosystem in Ukraine, Concord Fintech Solutions, Elena Sosedka.
Given the current situation in Ukraine, when there is a war, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) is faced with the difficult task of managing the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar. In general, the NBU should seek a balance between maintaining the exchange rate and adapting to the current economic and political conditions
According to her, in conditions of war, maintaining economic stability becomes a top priority.
The NBU may seek to maintain a relatively stable exchange rate in order to avoid further economic shocks. However, too strict a policy can lead to undesirable financial consequences
The expert added that in order to maintain the exchange rate, the regulator will need to use its foreign currency reserves.
In the current environment, these reserves may be more useful to support critical imports and military spending. Spending reserves to control the exchange rate can be risky
At the same time, according to the expert, currency devaluation often leads to inflation, which can undermine public confidence and destabilize the economy. She does not exclude that the National Bank may have to balance between the depreciation of the national currency and measures to control inflation.
Allowing currency devaluation could increase export competitiveness, potentially bringing in more foreign currency and supporting Ukrainian enterprises. However, this should be done carefully so as not to exacerbate economic problems
Add
Earlier, the Sosedka did not rule out that by the end of the year the price per dollar may rise to 44 hryvnia. According to her, the main factors affecting the foreign exchange market are the foreign economic, political and military situation in our country. In addition, the exchange rate will largely depend on the ability of Ukrainian producers to export their goods.
Recall
The co-founder of Concord Fintech Solutions, Ukraine's first fintech ecosystem, Olena Sosedka, previously noted that the future of the Ukrainian banking system is the subject of active discussion among economists and officials. One of the strategies for the development of the system is the concentration of banking capital and the privatization of state-owned banks. It should be understood that the banking system does not exist on its own - it is "a litmus of the level of economic development of the country and the trends that are cultivated in it." Therefore, now among the important issues facing the banking system, the expert noted the provision of clear and uniform rules for the banking sector, for example, effective monitoring of bank transactions and other important conditions for the development of the industry.
In general, Olena Sosedkabelieves that the Ukrainian banking sector needs changes, especially when implementing the concept of Open Banking-2025, which is a completely new role model for our market. At the same time, the mentioned issues relate not only to legal, but also to technical aspects, for example, common standards and methods of controlling technical processes. In particular, this is important for the implementation of the same concept of open banking, which was approved by the National Bank of Ukraine.