Heat-related deaths in Europe could triple by the end of the century - study
Kyiv • UNN
Modeling shows that under current climate policy, heat-related deaths in Europe could triple by the end of the century. Southern regions, especially the elderly, will suffer the most.
A modeling study shows that heat-related deaths in Europe could triple by the end of the century under current climate policy, Phys.org reports, UNN writes.
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"Heat-related deaths in Europe could triple by 2100 under current climate policy, mainly among people living in the southern parts of the continent," according to a study published in The Lancet Public Health.
The results emphasize the need for stronger policies to limit global warming to protect vulnerable regions and members of society from the effects of higher temperatures.
In recent years, Europe has experienced some of the hottest summer seasons on record, coinciding with high mortality rates. Older people are at increased risk of death from extreme temperatures, and the number of people reaching old age is expected to increase over time.
Overall, with 3°C of global warming - the upper estimate based on current climate policy - the number of heat-related deaths in Europe could increase from 43,729 to 128,809 by the end of the century. In the same scenario, the number of cold-related deaths, which is currently much higher than heat-related deaths, would remain high, with a slight decrease from 363,809 to 333,703 by 2100.
Dr. Juan Carlos Ciscar from the European Commission's Joint Research Center said: "Our analysis shows that the ratio of deaths from cold to heat will change dramatically over the course of this century, with heat-related deaths increasing in all parts of Europe and rising sharply in some areas. At the same time, the number of cold-related deaths will decline slightly overall. Our study covers more than 1,000 regions in 30 countries, allowing us to identify the hotspots where people will be most affected in the future.
The study estimates that high and low temperatures are currently responsible for 407,538 deaths across Europe each year, of which 363,809 are cold-related and 43,729 are heat-related. Cold-related deaths are highest in Eastern Europe and the Baltic States, and lowest in Central and parts of Southern Europe, with rates ranging from 25 to 300 deaths per 100,000 people. Heat-related deaths range from 0.6 to 47 deaths per 100,000 people, with the lowest rates in the United Kingdom and Scandinavian countries and the highest in Croatia and the southernmost parts of the continent.
With a 3°C warming, temperature-related deaths are projected to increase by 13.5%, resulting in an increase of 55,000 deaths per year, driven by an increase in heat-related deaths. Most of the deaths are expected to be among people over 85 years of age.
Currently, about eight times as many people in Europe die from cold as from heat (8.3:1 ratio), but this ratio is projected to decrease significantly by the end of the century. With global warming of 3°C, it is estimated to drop to 2.6:1 by 2100. In contrast, in a scenario based on the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C warming target, this ratio would drop to 6.7:1.
By 2100, cold-related deaths under a 3°C warming scenario are projected to decline slightly on average across Europe, ranging from 29 to 225 deaths per 100,000 people in European countries. A moderate decrease in cold-related deaths is projected for Eastern Europe and a slight decrease in parts of Germany, France, Italy and Portugal. However, cold-related deaths are estimated to increase in Ireland (where they will almost double), Norway and Sweden, all of which are projected to see a significant increase in the number of people aged 85 and older.
It is estimated that the number of heat-related deaths will increase in all regions of Europe with a 3°C warming, with mortality rates rising sharply, with a threefold increase in the European average to between 2 and 117 deaths per 100 ,000 people across European countries. Hotspots that will be particularly affected by greater warming and an increasing elderly population include Spain, Italy, Greece and parts of France.
