Grain exports in the next marketing year will be unchanged despite low yields - expert

This year, due to the low amount of rain, the yield of grain and oilseed crops will be slightly lower than in 2023, however, this will not affect the export performance. This opinion in an exclusive commentary UNN expressed the Deputy Chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Union Denis Marchuk.

As agrarians say - we don't count what is in the field, we count what is in the barn. But the situation is such that the indicator (yield - ed.) will be lower compared to last year, and the factors are clear. We plan to get within 77-78 million tons of grain and oilseeds

In particular, he said, it is planned to get about 56 million tons of cereals and about 21-22 million tons of oilseeds. "We will also count the indicators of corn and sunflower, because May is very dry, and the northeastern regions will not get enough water, sometimes even 50% of the norm has not fallen, and there are both 15 and 20%. That is, the situation is catastrophic and now, you see, there is no rain, and this factor will be one of the key in the final case, which will affect the yield indicators," Marchuk added.

At the same time, he said, these yields are generally sufficient to ensure food security, as part of the population had to leave Ukraine because of the war. About 15m tons of grain and oilseeds are needed now to ensure food security.

At the same time, according to Marchuk, export volumes will not change in the next marketing year. "That is, one way or another, the figure of about 60 million tons is a stable figure that we export. Within 60 million tons, so it will be laid down in the next marketing year," he specified.

Supplement

The director-general of the Ukrainian Agrarian Business Club, Oleh Khomenko, said earlier that due to the fact that 95% of grain exports take place by sea, ports have much wider opportunities for exporting "gray" grain. The approximate amount of unaccounted grain that is exported from Ukraine can now reach up to 5 million tons per year. 

Recall

Earlier it became known that the Economic Security Bureau was investigating several criminal proceedings related to gray export of grain. According to law enforcers, the most common scheme of such tax evasion worth tens of millions of hryvnias is the purchase of grain that does not have documents on its origin for cash and its further export abroad using the details of "risky" or front companies.

One striking example of gray exports is the criminal cases that concern gray exports from the Olympex grain terminal in 2021-2023, when it was actively managed by Odessa businessmen Sergei Groza and Vladimir Naumenko.

In particular, in January 2021, law enforcers were interested in a number of companies involved in grain export and related to the agroholding GNT Group of Sergey Groza and Vladimir Naumenko. LLC "Ferko", LLC "Metalsukrane Corp LTD", LLC "Grain Reloading Complex "Inzernoexport" and enterprise "Vtormetexport", belonging to GNT Group, actively used the requisites" risky" companies for export operations. In the course of the investigation, the territorial department of the BEB in the Odessa region identified at least three such "risky" enterprises: AUTSTAFF 19 LLC, ALISENTA TRADE LLC, and SOLTEK PRODUCT LLC. In addition, the investigation found that the exported grain was stored, among other things, in the warehouses of Olympex Coupe International LLC - which is also controlled by Groza and Naumenko.

Based on the results of the investigation, law enforcers found that none of the mentioned "risky" enterprises had no proof of purchase of grains that were planned to be exported - more than 2 thousand tons of corn, barley, wheat (this is only what was found by law enforcers during the searches). In addition, all these enterprises violated the requirements of financial and tax reporting, demonstrated zero profitability, and understated profit tax.

According to law enforcers' calculations, Groza and Naumenko's companies caused almost UAH 37.5m damage to the state within the framework of this criminal case alone. At the same time, the exporter of "gray" grain was Agiros LLC, which belongs to a well-known smuggler Vadim Alperin, against whom the SNBO imposed sanctions in 2021 and who was deprived of Ukrainian citizenship. And shipping these grains, according to media reports, was another company controlled by Groza and Naumenko, "Attollo Granum." 

This criminal proceeding is currently still under investigation.

Another criminal proceedinginvolving Groza and Naumenko's company, Olympex Coupe International LLC, is being investigated by the territorial department of the Kyiv City BEB. It was opened a year later, in 2022, but also concerns "gray" grain exports.

The case is being investigated under articles on tax evasion, forgery of documents for state registers, legalization (laundering) of proceeds of crime and illegal handling of weapons or ammunition.

The scheme used by Groza and Naumenko's company is identical to the one used earlier, only the names of the fictitious companies differ, and not all of them. In particular, it includes AUTSTAFF 19 LLC mentioned in another criminal proceeding. 

In addition to this company, they also used the "risky" companies EXPRESS ALL and AGROTRANS-GROUP. With their help, according to the investigation, at least 40,000 tons of grain and oilseeds disappeared from the terminal in 2023.  

In addition, BEB detectives believe that criminal activity related to tax evasion through gray exports of grain at the Olympex terminal continues.